Five place to explore the world of prediction markets

Prediction markets have gone mainstream, with facebook building it’s own crowd-sourced prediction market Forecast (https://techcrunch.com/2020/06/23/facebook-tests-forecast-an-app-for-making-predictions-about-world-events-like-covid-19/).

What are prediction markets?

Prediction markets are places where people make their best bet on what will happen in the future. Lots of times, money is involved, but in some cases it's more about clout.

 

5 places to explore the world of Prediction Markets

  1. Good Judgement Open (https://www.gjopen.com/)— a prediction marketplace where top predictors are ranked based off of an accuracy score called a Brier Score (https://www.gjopen.com/faq). The site is ran/run by Philip Tetlock (and his lab) of Superforecaster fame (https://www.sas.upenn.edu/tetlock/). Topics range from finance to politics to sports. Some of the superforecasters have made an entertaining podcast called Non-Prophets (https://nonprophetspod.wordpress.com/).

  2. Predict It(https://www.predictit.org/)/-a political prediction marketplace with real money involved. They also have a good podcast called the political trade (https://luckboxmagazine.com/tpt/).

  3. Auger (https://www.augur.net/)-a place where you can make bets on the future using cryptocurrency. Note: It is undergoing some changes, but was a fairly popular use case.

  4. Metaculus (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/) — Prediction market without monetary rewards. Good to bounce against the others.

  5. Long Bets(http://longbets.org/)/- A place where folks make a public bet for some sum of money on future events. It, and the Long Now Foundation are super interesting.